"It ain't over 'til it's over."

I am not the first nor will I be the last one to quote Mr. Yogi Berra of NY Yankee fame. This wise saying is as apropos today as it was over 50 years ago. How many times have we heard our leaders say . . . "The Recession is over"?

Well, when it comes to your company, the recession will be over, when sales are rising as they were pre-2008, when you are back to full production, when earnings are generated by revenue growth and not expense cuts, when you are comfortable with your liquidity and when you feel confident in growing your business.

Are you there yet?

Moody’s sees a slowdown in the improvement we have seen over the last 13 months:

Moody's Liquidity-Stress Index remained at 4.8% in May, halting a 13-month improvement in this measure of corporate liquidity, the ratings service said. The lull in May was the first interruption in the liquidity measure's improvement since the index peaked at 20.9% in March 2009. Moody's Liquidity-Stress Index measures the percentage of companies rated by Moody's with the rating agency's lowest speculative grade liquidity rating of SGL-4. The index generally declines as corporate liquidity improves.

The slowdown in improvement in the index in May coincides with a sharp decline in high-yield debt issuance as concerns about the European financial crisis prompted a flight to less-risky assets, Moody's said in a report. A sustained drop in demand for high-yield corporate paper could push companies with maturing debt or tight covenants closer to default. Source: Moody’s press release

"The future ain't what it used to be."

Mr. Berra was spot on again. American business has a new normal. Businesses cannot take the risk of hiring people that may be ineffective. Everyone we add needs to be paid for performance. How do they add to the bottom line, are they accountable for results and do they have skin in the game?

News Alert -- The Wall Street Journal -- June 4, 2010 -- 12:15 p.m. EDT

The U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs in May, but the gains were inflated by 411,000 temporary government hires for the 2010 Census, the Labor Department reported. The private sector created just 41,000 jobs after adding 218,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate, which is calculated using a separate household survey, fell only moderately, to 9.7% in May from 9.9% the previous month. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting payrolls to rise by an even higher 515,000.

"It's deja vu all over again."

Many of us went through a similar period 10 years or so ago when we went through the dot com bust. Did we learn our lesson or did we go back to the same old habits?

Small Business Confidence Increased in May

According to a recent survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, confidence among small employers in the United States increased to its highest level since September 2008 as employers become more optimistic that the nation's economy will improve in six months. The report showed that the optimism index rose to 92.2 in May, up from 90.6 in April. The increase is lower than in previous economic rebounds, which indicate the economy will take some time to gain strength. Businessweek.com - June 8, 2010

So my advice . . . Be cautiously optimistic. Hire folks that will help grow top line revenue and pay them for success. Keep experts on your team that understand your business and can control COGS. Outsource through third parties the management of G&A expenses and pay them for performance.